C3 Population Dynamics

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Jiřina Kocourková

Tuesday, April 18 10:30 am – 12:00 pm

The aim is to ascertain which components of population change are primarily responsible for the different population dynamics and development in the EU and the US, especially for the slowdown in growth and the expected shrinking of the EU population. This will help inform discussions on population policies if the European Union and its Member States seek to tackle the somewhat unfavorable population development. Since the UN population projections reflect the current population structure and the nature of demographic behavior determined by the path of population development of past decades, the aim is to investigate the character and trajectories of population dynamics in the EU and the US since 1960. Analyzes of the total population change including natural change and migration will be presented including the major discrepancies between the rates of natural change with focusing specifically on fertility and mortality. Particular attention will be devoted to structural dimensions in differences in fertility and mortality, referring to the demographic behavior of population groups (namely ethnic groups in the US), regional disparities in demographic performance (especially resulting from political, economic and cultural divisions within Europe) and covid-19 pandemic. With the aid of this detailed analytical comparison of the EU and the US and using references to secondary sources, the conditions and factors that lie behind the different population dynamics of these two world macro-regions will be discussed.

Readings:

Sobotka, T., Jasilioniene, A., Zeman, K., Winkler-Dworak, M., Brzozowska, Z., Galarza, A.A., Nemeth, L. and Jdanov, D., 2022. From bust to boom? Birth and fertility responses to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Kocourková, J., Novák, M., Sýkora, L. and Šídlo, L., 2018. Growing gap in population dynamics, closing the gap in population size: the European Union and the United States compared.

Lesthaeghe, R., 2014. The second demographic transition: A concise overview of its development. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(51), pp.18112-18115.